SS Futures Pull Back Slightly, Market Confidence Weakens, Stainless Steel Trading Sluggish [SMM Stainless Steel Daily Report]

SMM November 27 news, SS futures showed a trend of stopping the rise and pulling back. Today, macro tailwinds were largely digested, and SHFE nickel futures pulled back. Given the already weak fundamentals of stainless steel, SS futures followed suit, with intraday lows once again probing below 12,400 yuan/mt. In the spot market, due to the decline in SS futures and concentrated transactions in the previous period, market transactions weakened again today. Cost side, high-grade NPI prices continued to fall, leading to a loosening of cost support for stainless steel. Additionally, doubts about the actual implementation of production cuts by steel mills led to another weakening in the stainless steel market. This week, social inventory saw an inventory buildup, rising 0.64% WoW to 946,000 mt.

The most-traded SS futures contract stopped falling and began to recover. At 10:30 AM, SS2601 was quoted at 12,395 yuan/mt, down 55 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premiums/discounts for 304/2B in Wuxi ranged between 325-525 yuan/mt. In the spot market, Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coils were quoted at 8,025 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 304/2B coils, Wuxi average 12,625 yuan/mt, Foshan average 12,650 yuan/mt; Wuxi cold-rolled 316L/2B coils 23,800 yuan/mt, Foshan 23,800 yuan/mt; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils, Wuxi 23,250 yuan/mt; Wuxi and Foshan cold-rolled 430/2B coils both 7,600 yuan/mt.

Recently, after the US Fed released dovish signals, the likelihood of an interest rate cut in December increased, potentially leading to further easing of US dollar liquidity. Driven by this macro tailwind, the overall metal futures market strengthened. Among them, SS futures ended their continuous decline since late October, rebounding from the lowest point since 2020. Meanwhile, spot prices also rebounded. Influenced by the "rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn" mentality, as well as the actions of trading firms engaging in both spot and futures market to purchase spot to close out short positions, and the release of previously suppressed demand due to cautious observation during the price drop, market demand clearly recovered. Supply side, recent reports indicated that multiple steel mills planned production cuts. These cuts expanded from 200-series stainless steel to 400-series, with a certain mill in Guangxi planning a maintenance shutdown in December. Although the final actual reduction in production remains to be seen, a general decrease in stainless steel production seems inevitable. Cost side, high-grade NPI prices further declined. Despite falling below the cost line for domestic NPI producers, it is difficult to gain support in a weak market, further weakening the cost support for stainless steel. Although stainless steel prices have risen recently due to macro tailwinds and news of production cuts, the weakening cost support and persistently soft year-end demand still cast a shadow of market pessimism, posing a risk of pullback.